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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Can Morning Musume's Mikan Take the Top Spot in Oricon?

The time draws near, and the result will be out soon - Will Morning Musume's latest single "Mikan" regain their number position at the Oricon charts once again?

...... funny, I have never anticipated the charting positions like this... maybe it's because earlier today, I was worried if Momusu can even make it pass the top 10, thankfully they eventually did....

In any case, we have heard from our own side of opinion about Momusu's latest single but what about the others? Here are Momusu's main competition:

KAT-TUN - Keep the Faith This one really ROCKS! Sorry to say, but they are truly rockin' it good, and I like the song... this will be damn tough to beat. (Actually, I don't think it can be beat. Please don't stone me... )

KOH+ - KISS shite J-Rock, it's OK, but not spectacular to me.

Keishimeshi - Seinaru yoru ni / Fuyu monogatari - A Hip Hop Christmas song. With X'mas drawing close, and the PV showing lots of lovey dovey stuff, they should get some attention.

EXILE - I Believe - Another Christmas themed winter song, a feels-good-to-be-in-love song, I like this one. Notably, the lyrics is written by new vocalist Takahiro.




Personally, I think the biggest threat is EXILE and KAT-TUN. Between Christmas and a Johnny's powergroup, I don't know.... it's tough. KOH+ and Keishimeshi cannot be overlooked either. Optimistically, I hope the debut will be #3, but on the pessimist side it may be at #5. But if Momusu can beat either EXILE or KAT-TUN, it will be a good sign of things to come. Because Momusu, if not H!P in general, really needed something to make everyone overlook their scandal-plagued year.


So what do you think?

16 comments:

HarimaKenji said...

After watching all the PVs mentioned, I think that, if I were in Japan, I wouldn't be of much help to H!P. I'd certainly buy "Keep the Faith" along with Mikan.
Anyway, getting first place would mean H!P beats Johnny's. That'll be very difficult. There's a big difference in mainstream acceptance between H!P and Johnny right now. I'll be happy if it gets any position among the top 3.

KuS-KuS said...

I don't like being pessimist but personally, I think it's almost impossible to beat KAT-TUN. Even if their single was crappy they'd still probably sell +100K.
As for the others, I don't know much about them except for EXILE, but I thought they had lower sales. Not likely to beat but still, less tough rival than KAT-TUN.

Rimino said...

They won't be no.1, but I don't really care. Oricon charting means rather little and people put too much emphasis on it over sales numbers. Sure it is great to chart 1st, however I'd much rather MM chart 3rd selling 55K on a strong week, than 1st selling 45K on a weak week.

That being said, I think they'll be 3rd.

Mick a.k.a. jinryuichi said...

my sentiments exactly peoples... you spoke my mind. of course, i don't really mind the rankings but it DOES feel good to see them at the top spot, yes? Btw, KOH+ and Keishimeshi had been selling better than Momusu at some stores... and that worries me.

When I first found out that they are up against EXILE and KAT-TUN, I am assuming the worst. But Momusu used to be chart-topping and so invincible. It is a period that I really miss and I hope that those glory days would return.

Anonymous said...

NINKI Poll predicted MM at #5 with 64.00 .ONSA had a 37.00 prediction but was 43.00 for the week.ONSA was in the top 5 radio rankings for a longer time then they were ranked in the Oricon. There are a lot of things that Oricon does not count and it is not a true picture of how well a song is doing for any artist..

Oricon does not count digital download sales or all stores, only member stores . For example ,digital revenue makes up for 69% of all artists revenue in terms of singles sales in Japan. Utada Hikaru`s "Flavor Of Life" , digital downloads & physical CD sales, was 8,300,000 copies sold .

Aican and Risa have been doing a lot of Interviews since they became leaders, they have put this group on their shoulders and many media outlets have said that you would be surprised at Aichan`s behind the scenes leadership . Aichan is viewed as one of the hardest working leaders they have ever had behind the scenes ,something that surprised the reporters from Barks.

Barks reporters said that Aichan works endlessly behind the scenes to get the best out of the members of Morning Musume on TV and is mindful of everything that is involved with them on TV events .She talks with the production staff about how to get the most out of the members and camera angles . She understands the image they must present at all times .

Aichan said in a recent interview that her & Risa are Junjun & Linlin respective teachers on top of their normal duties . They spend a lot of time explaining what being a Morning Musume means and Junjun and Linlin always come to them with every problem .

Morning Musume are in great hands right now as Aichan and Risa love for Morning Musume is coming out in this group every week . Mikan could become thus versions of Morning Musume anthem song .

Seeing these former junior members set out on their own legacy is something special.

Major announcement on Haromoni next weekend , could new members for 08 be next ?

Mick a.k.a. jinryuichi said...

Wow.... nice and lengthy input, Anon. Especially the Oricon and predictions bit. Please leave a nickname next time, ya? ^_^

I read the news article on Barks too. It's good marketing strategy, to keep the fans informed of the the behind-the-scenes work. Hopefully, the effort pays off.

It's really something, seeing Ai-chan and Gaki-san leading the pack. Sometimes I forget that Ai-chan is already over 20. Seeing her in hard-work is fine, but I sometimes I worry about her career after graduation. Welp, we'll just wait and see.

New audition coming already? Wow, time flies...! (^o^)/

Anonymous said...

wait, MM is predicted to sell 64K the first week? In that case, I don't give a crap if they do get 5th. That would be the strongest first week sales they've had for over 2 years (since iroppoi)

Anna said...

XD I'm really in between all these groups, so its pretty much up to the promotion they get, which I have seen only a little bit. They seriously need to promote this single, which deserves it entirely, because the competition is really something.

KAT-TUN's Keep the Faith and their Tour DVD is coming out on the same day, which will make people who are only buying the DVD go for the CD, too. ^_^ Then they have Yukan Club, which Akanishi is starring in as the theme song.

EXILE, well don't they always score big?

For KOH+ I think it may do pretty well for the first couple of days, but will drop. It is by the super famous Fukuyama Masaharu, but I'm not so sure it'll do just as well as his solo works. But they do have a drama tie in.

You can't forget Ketsumeishi, who is pretty popular.

Morning Musume... no big promotion... T_T

Here's an interesting poll regarding this week's releases;
http://music.yahoo.co.jp/poll/result.php

Hope its just not all the wotas voting like crazy.

BTW, I was going to do a similar post. Haha~

Gaki said...

This is the Predictions that I told you about .

Predictions may not be the correct word , it`s more like they anticipate the week playing out this way .

NINKI Predictions

1.Kat-Tun 308.60
2.Exile 99.0
3.KOH+ 94.00
4.Keishimeshi 90.70
5.Morning Musume 64.00 If they sale this for the week they will beat the entire recorded Oricon total for ONSA 50,812


About Oricon :
Oricon`s totals are only 60% of the true total market sales . The 40% it does not count is digital downloads , online site sales outside of Japan, and small stores or services that are not a part of Oricon .

Mick a.k.a. jinryuichi said...

Perhaps the closer term is "estimations"? The difference between the top spot and the others are a little far though. oh well...... i guess it's expected.

@anna... err... i can't see the poll... (-.-)?

Gaki said...

It came in at 5 only the top 3 have sales numbers listed .
Daily Chart:
#5

top 5 (index):
1. KAT-TUN (88,358)
2. Ketsumeishi (20,867)
3. EXILE (20,317)
4. KOH+
5. Morning Musume

http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/js/d/

Mick a.k.a. jinryuichi said...

Welp.... like I said, it's expected, i guess... tough luck this time, I don't see Mikan climbing further up either.

Surprised to see Ketsumeishi on top of EXILE though, even if it is just a small difference.

Anna said...

http://music.yahoo.co.jp/poll/result.php?poll_id=6110&wv=1
Hope this one works then.

I'm not so surprised to see the rankings. Very tough week. I'm just hoping for some staying power.

Gaki said...

The daily numbers are just index numbers .Most of the Oricon stores send in weekly numbers , so Oricon takes a sample of the stores to make the daily rankings . To get the estimated total for the day you x by 1.75 .

KAT-TUN is more likely to be around 155,000 after you use the modifier .

Since the leadership change and the kids games on Haromoni ,more families and women have been at the concerts .That alone is a good sign of growth for MM .

They are on Music Japan and also at Ameba Studios on November 23 between 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m.( 11/23 Fri 12:30 - 13:30 (Japan time) )They have streaming video so you can watch them.
Ameba Studio's website is http://studio.ameba.jp/index.do

That could help them a little . They are on Utaban the 29th .

They will play at the FNS Kayousai Festival Dec 5 .
http://www.fujitv.co.jp/FNS/index2.html

Gaki said...

Drop to #6 yesterday, even if Oricon is only telling part of the story here is some related non sales side notes ,that are good signs the song is doing well overall. On Radio De Culture this morning on Nippon TV , Mikan was used as the back ground music for the weather report . They showed a clip of the video first and then it was the back ground music as music only , while they gave the weather .
watching Studio Ameba while waiting for their event with MM and a lot of women are coming up and looking at the posters of MM outside the studio .So far it`s been more women then men,they are growing in non wotas again.

Gaki said...

I don`t have the weekly totals yet, however what ever the number don`t think that things are bad and here is why.

Came out on Nov 22 RIAJ (Recording Industry Association Of Japan)

3RD QTR report on Digital Download Sales

Overall, mobile-based downloads rose 32% to 113.5 million units, for a value of 18.2 billion yen ($166 million), up 46%.

PC-based music downloads in the third quarter, meanwhile, were up 42% to 8.3 million units, for a value of 1.5 billion yen ($14.1 million), up 29%.

The RIAJ defines the PC-downloads category as comprising singles, albums, mini-albums and "other related content" sold over wired networks, with albums and mini-albums counting as single units regardless of the number of tracks they contain. The association says that although the data doesn't differentiate between sales of single tracks and albums, singles account for the overwhelming majority of download sales.

The mobile category comprises sales over wireless networks of full single tracks, ring tones, master ring tones and other related content.

Cumulative digital-download results for the first three quarters of 2007 show mobile-based music downloads rising 28% to 325.2 million units, for a value of 50 billion yen ($458.1 million), up 44%, while PC-based downloads in the January-September period rose 27% to 22.3 million units, for a value of 4.3 billion yen ($38.7 million), up 15%.

Total digital downloads, including miscellaneous categories, for the first three quarters totaled 347.5 million units, a rise of 28%, for a value of 55.3 billion yen ($506.8 million), up 44%.

More information here

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